FOREX
The foreign exchange (also known as "FOREX" or "FX") market is the place where currencies are traded. The overall forex market is the largest, most liquid market in the world with an average traded value that exceeds $1.9 trillion per day and includes all of the currencies in the world
The foreign exchange market or spot fx or retail forex or currency market is a definitely a non-stop financial market where currencies of different nations are traded. Some of the participants in this market include government, central banks, commercial and investment banks, hedge funds and massive multinational corporations. Some of the volume in the forex market is simply banks and corporations exchanging a foreign currency for another. However, traders who attempt to take advantage of small fluctuations in exchange rates can also participate in the Forex market.
Forex stands out from other markets for a number of reasons:
- 24-hour trading, 5 days a week.
- The ability to profit in rising or falling markets.
- The biggest financial market in the world.
- Leveraged trading with low margin requirements.
- Unlike stocks the market cannot be cornered.
Every day close to $5 Trillion is traded through the Forex market. Even if you take all the daily volume traded on the U.S.
What does this mean for you?
It means that, if you patiently complete your Fx Ninja training, you can become a trader in the Forex market. If, however, you want to be Rambo and go in guns blazing, the market will beat you down.
Trading of What in Forex?
In the stock market you trade stocks. In the commodities market you trade commodities and in the Forex market you trade Forexies. Kidding!
Just a little ninja humour there. In the Forex market you trade currencies.
In the next lesson we will discuss this a little more.
Spot FX market
Spot FX is just another name for Forex, it is not a different market. Spot market simply means a market that deals on the current price of a financial instrument, unlike markets such as futures which are traded differently. In the Forex market, trades are taken based on current prices, therefore it is a spot market.
Further Explanation of Forex
Ok newbie ninja, lets quickly go through a few other facts about the Forex market. You don’t need to know this stuff to be a successful Forex trader but, if you’re going to trade this market, you might as well know a few cool facts about it.
Back in 2007, the reported daily average turnover of the Forex market was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion by the Bank for International Settlements. Between 2007 and 2008, it was reported that the market grew an additional 41%, taking it to a massive US$4.5 trillion daily.
The average daily turnover for 2007 was:
- $1.005 trillion in spot transactions
- $362 billion in outright forwards
- $1.714 trillion in foreign exchange swaps
Foreign exchange swaps account for a slim majority of the average daily turnover. They are mostly put through by institutions to fund their foreign exchange balances. Spot transactions account for the rest of the average daily turnover. They are spot positions taken by anybody from banks to Fx Ninjas.
FOREX Vs. STOCK MARKET
Even though Forex has been around for a long time it wasn’t until about 1996 that private individuals could trade it. Previously, It was only open to the very rich and was mainly traded by institutions, such as banks and hedge funds.
By 1998, the internet was increasing in popularity. This led to many brokers opening up shop online thus allowing smaller traders access to the Forex market.
So Forex is a relatively new market to smaller traders, and while it’s growing very fast, it is not as well known as the stock market. However, the Forex market has many advantages over the stock market.
LOCATIONS OF FOREX
You probably already know that the physical location of the U.S. New York Chicago
However, in Forex there is no central location. Forex is not dealt across the floor like the stock market on Wall Street, it is traded via the internet. Trading is conducted between traders 24 hours per day through electronic communication networks (ECNs), in various markets around the world. Since the Forex market is traded through ECNs, it does not need a physical location.
You may sometimes hear London London New York
So, even though Forex has no physical location the global centre of Forex is definitely London
OPENING & CLOSING TIME
Arguably the best thing about the Forex market is that it’s open 24 hours a day for 5 days a week.
n the stock market, the New York
The market opens on Sunday at 5pm U.S. Sydney Tokyo Frankfurt , London , New York Sydney New York 4pm EST.
EXPLANATION OF TERMS INVOLVED IN FOREX
1-CURRENCY TRADING
The foreign exchange market (forex or FX for short) is one of the most exciting, fast-paced markets around. Until recently, forex trading in the currency market had been the domain of large financial institutions, corporations, central banks, hedge funds and extremely wealthy individuals. The emergence of the internet has changed all of this, and now it is possible for average investors to buy and sell currencies easily with the click of a mouse through online brokerage accounts.
Daily currency fluctuations are usually very small. Most currency pairs move less than one cent per day, representing a less than 1% change in the value of the currency. This makes foreign exchange one of the least volatile financial markets around. Therefore, many currency speculators rely on the availability of enormous leverage to increase the value of potential movements. In the retail forex market, leverage can be as much as 250:1. Higher leverage can be extremely risky, but because of round-the-clock trading and deep liquidity, foreign exchange brokers have been able to make high leverage an industry standard in order to make the movements meaningful for currency traders.
Extreme liquidity and the availability of high leverage have helped to spur the market's rapid growth and made it the ideal place for many traders. Positions can be opened and closed within minutes or can be held for months. Currency prices are based on objective considerations of supply and demand and cannot be manipulated easily because the size of the market does not allow even the largest players, such as central banks, to move prices at will.
The forex market provides plenty of opportunity for investors. However, in order to be successful, a currency trader has to understand the basics behind currency movements.
The goal of this forex tutorial is to provide a foundation for investors or traders who are new to the foreign currency markets. We'll cover the basics of exchange rates, the market's history and the key concepts you need to understand in order to be able to participate in this market. We'll also venture into how to start trading foreign currencies and the different types of strategies that can be employed.
Extreme liquidity and the availability of high leverage have helped to spur the market's rapid growth and made it the ideal place for many traders. Positions can be opened and closed within minutes or can be held for months. Currency prices are based on objective considerations of supply and demand and cannot be manipulated easily because the size of the market does not allow even the largest players, such as central banks, to move prices at will.
The forex market provides plenty of opportunity for investors. However, in order to be successful, a currency trader has to understand the basics behind currency movements.
The goal of this forex tutorial is to provide a foundation for investors or traders who are new to the foreign currency markets. We'll cover the basics of exchange rates, the market's history and the key concepts you need to understand in order to be able to participate in this market. We'll also venture into how to start trading foreign currencies and the different types of strategies that can be employed.
2-FOREX TRADING
The foreign exchange market is the "place" where currencies are traded. Currencies are important to most people around the world, whether they realize it or not, because currencies need to be exchanged in order to conduct foreign trade and business. If you are living in the U.S. France U.S.
The need to exchange currencies is the primary reason why the forex market is the largest, most liquid financial market in the world. It dwarfs other markets in size, even the stock market, with an average traded value of around U.S. $2,000 billion per day. (The total volume changes all the time, but as of April 2004, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reported that the forex market traded U.S. $1,900 billion per day.)
One unique aspect of this international market is that there is no central marketplace for foreign exchange. Rather, currency trading is conducted electronically over-the-counter (OTC), which means that all transactions occur via computer networks between traders around the world, rather than on one centralized exchange. The market is open 24 hours a day, five and a half days a week, and currencies are traded worldwide in the major financial centers of London, New York, Tokyo, Zurich, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Singapore, Paris and Sydney - across almost every time zone. This means that when the trading day in theU.S. Tokyo Hong Kong . As such, the forex market can be extremely active any time of the day, with price quotes changing constantly.
Spot Market and the Forwards and Futures Markets
One unique aspect of this international market is that there is no central marketplace for foreign exchange. Rather, currency trading is conducted electronically over-the-counter (OTC), which means that all transactions occur via computer networks between traders around the world, rather than on one centralized exchange. The market is open 24 hours a day, five and a half days a week, and currencies are traded worldwide in the major financial centers of London, New York, Tokyo, Zurich, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Singapore, Paris and Sydney - across almost every time zone. This means that when the trading day in the
Spot Market and the Forwards and Futures Markets
There are actually three ways that institutions, corporations and individuals trade forex: the spot market, the forwards market and the futures market. The forex trading in the spot market always has been the largest market because it is the "underlying" real asset that the forwards and futures markets are based on. In the past, the futures market was the most popular venue for traders because it was available to individual investors for a longer period of time. However, with the advent of electronic trading, the spot market has witnessed a huge surge in activity and now surpasses the futures market as the preferred trading market for individual investors and speculators. When people refer to the forex market, they usually are referring to the spot market. The forwards and futures markets tend to be more popular with companies that need to hedge their foreign exchange risks out to a specific date in the future.
What is the spot market?
More specifically, the spot market is where currencies are bought and sold according to the current price. That price, determined by supply and demand, is a reflection of many things, including current interest rates, economic performance, sentiment towards ongoing political situations (both locally and internationally), as well as the perception of the future performance of one currency against another. When a deal is finalized, this is known as a "spot deal". It is a bilateral transaction by which one party delivers an agreed-upon currency amount to the counter party and receives a specified amount of another currency at the agreed-upon exchange rate value. After a position is closed, the settlement is in cash. Although the spot market is commonly known as one that deals with transactions in the present (rather than the future), these trades actually take two days for settlement.
What are the forwards and futures markets?
Unlike the spot market, the forwards and futures markets do not trade actual currencies. Instead they deal in contracts that represent claims to a certain currency type, a specific price per unit and a future date for settlement.
In the forwards market, contracts are bought and sold OTC between two parties, who determine the terms of the agreement between themselves.
In the futures market, futures contracts are bought and sold based upon a standard size and settlement date on public commodities markets, such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In the
Both types of contracts are binding and are typically settled for cash for the exchange in question upon expiry, although contracts can also be bought and sold before they expire. The forwards and futures markets can offer protection against risk when trading currencies. Usually, big international corporations use these markets in order to hedge against future exchange rate fluctuations, but speculators take part in these markets as well. (For a more in-depth introduction to futures, see Futures Fundamentals.)
Note that you'll see the terms: FX, forex, foreign-exchange market and currency market. These terms are synonymous and all refer to the forex market.
3-FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND BENEFITS
We already have mentioned that factors such as the size, volatility and global structure of the foreign exchange market have all contributed to its rapid success. Given the highly liquid nature of this market, investors are able to place extremely large trades without affecting any given exchange rate. These large positions are made available to forex traders because of the low margin requirements used by the majority of the industry's brokers. For example, it is possible for a trader to control a position of US$100,000 by putting down as little as US$1,000 up front and borrowing the remainder from his or her forex broker. This amount of leverage acts as a double-edged sword because investors can realize large gains when rates make a small favorable change, but they also run the risk of a massive loss when the rates move against them. Despite the foreign exchange risks, the amount of leverage available in the forex market is what makes it attractive for many speculators.
The currency market is also the only market that is truly open 24 hours a day with decent liquidity throughout the day. For traders who may have a day job or just a busy schedule, it is an optimal market to trade in. As you can see from the chart below, the major trading hubs are spread throughout many different time zones, eliminating the need to wait for an opening or closing bell. As theU.S.
The currency market is also the only market that is truly open 24 hours a day with decent liquidity throughout the day. For traders who may have a day job or just a busy schedule, it is an optimal market to trade in. As you can see from the chart below, the major trading hubs are spread throughout many different time zones, eliminating the need to wait for an opening or closing bell. As the
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While the forex market may offer more excitement to the investor, the risks are also higher in comparison to trading equities. The ultra-high leverage of the forex market means that huge gains can quickly turn to damaging losses and can wipe out the majority of your account in a matter of minutes. This is important for all new traders to understand, because in the forex market - due to the large amount of money involved and the number of players - traders will react quickly to information released into the market, leading to sharp moves in the price of the currency pair.
Though currencies don't tend to move as sharply as equities on a percentage basis (where a company's stock can lose a large portion of its value in a matter of minutes after a bad announcement), it is the leverage in the spot market that creates the volatility. For example, if you are using 100:1 leverage on $1,000 invested, you control $100,000 in capital. If you put $100,000 into a currency and the currency's price moves 1% against you, the value of the capital will have decreased to $99,000 - a loss of $1,000, or all of your invested capital, representing a 100% loss. In the equities market, most traders do not use leverage, therefore a 1% loss in the stock's value on a $1,000 investment, would only mean a loss of $10. Therefore, it is important to take into account the risks involved in the forex market before diving in.
Differences Between Forex and Equities
A major difference between the forex and equities markets is the number of traded instruments: the forex market has very few compared to the thousands found in the equities market. The majority of forex traders focus their efforts on seven different currency pairs: the four majors, which include (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF); and the three commodity pairs (USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD). All other pairs are just different combinations of the same currencies, otherwise known as cross currencies. This makes currency trading easier to follow because rather than having to cherry-pick between 10,000 stocks to find the best value, all that FX traders need to do is “keep up” on the economic and political news of eight countries.
The equity markets often can hit a lull, resulting in shrinking volumes and activity. As a result, it may be hard to open and close positions when desired. Furthermore, in a declining market, it is only with extreme ingenuity that an equities investor can make a profit. It is difficult to short-sell in the
Due to the extreme liquidity of the forex market, margins are low and leverage is high. It just is not possible to find such low margin rates in the equities markets; most margin traders in the equities markets need at least 50% of the value of the investment available as margin, whereas forex traders need as little as 1%. Furthermore, commissions in the equities market are much higher than in the forex market. Traditional brokers ask for commission fees on top of the spread, plus the fees that have to be paid to the exchange. Spot forex brokers take only the spread as their fee for the transaction By now you should have a basic understanding of what the forex market is and how it works. In the next section, we'll examine the evolution of the current foreign exchange system.
4-FOREX HISTORY AND MARKET PARTICIPATION
Given the global nature of the forex exchange market, it is important to first examine and learn some of the important historical events relating to currencies and currency exchange before entering any trades. In this section we’ll review the international monetary system and how it has evolved to its current state. We will then take a look at the major players that occupy the forex market - something that is important for all potential forex traders to understand.
The creation of the gold standard monetary system in 1875 marks one of the most important events in the history of the forex market. Before the gold standard was implemented, countries would commonly use gold and silver as means of international payment. The main issue with using gold and silver for payment is that their value is affected by external supply and demand. For example, the discovery of a new gold mine would drive gold prices down.
The underlying idea behind the gold standard was that governments guaranteed the conversion of currency into a specific amount of gold, and vice versa. In other words, a currency would be backed by gold. Obviously, governments needed a fairly substantial gold reserve in order to meet the demand for currency exchanges. During the late nineteenth century, all of the major economic countries had defined an amount of currency to an ounce of gold. Over time, the difference in price of an ounce of gold between two currencies became the exchange rate for those two currencies. This represented the first standardized means of currency exchange in history.
The gold standard eventually broke down during the beginning of World War I. Due to the political tension withGermany, the major European powers felt a need to complete large military projects. The financial burden of these projects was so substantial that there was not enough gold at the time to exchange for all the excess currency that the governments were printing off.
Bretton Woods System
The underlying idea behind the gold standard was that governments guaranteed the conversion of currency into a specific amount of gold, and vice versa. In other words, a currency would be backed by gold. Obviously, governments needed a fairly substantial gold reserve in order to meet the demand for currency exchanges. During the late nineteenth century, all of the major economic countries had defined an amount of currency to an ounce of gold. Over time, the difference in price of an ounce of gold between two currencies became the exchange rate for those two currencies. This represented the first standardized means of currency exchange in history.
The gold standard eventually broke down during the beginning of World War I. Due to the political tension withGermany, the major European powers felt a need to complete large military projects. The financial burden of these projects was so substantial that there was not enough gold at the time to exchange for all the excess currency that the governments were printing off.
Bretton Woods System
Before the end of World War II, the Allied nations believed that there would be a need to set up a monetary system in order to fill the void that was left behind when the gold standard system was abandoned. In July 1944, more than 700 representatives from the Allies convened at
To simplify, Bretton Woods led to the formation of the following:
- A method of fixed exchange rates;
- The U.S. dollar replacing the gold standard to become a primary reserve currency; and
- The creation of three international agencies to oversee economic activity: the International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).
One of the main features of Bretton Woods is that the U.S. dollar replaced gold as the main standard of convertibility for the world’s currencies; and furthermore, the U.S. dollar became the only currency that would be backed by gold. (This turned out to be the primary reason that Bretton Woods eventually failed.)
Over the next 25 or so years, theU.S. U.S. U.S.
Finally, onAugust 15, 1971 , U.S. President Richard Nixon closed the gold window, and the U.S.
Even though Bretton Woods didn’t last, it left an important legacy that still has a significant effect on today’s international economic climate. This legacy exists in the form of the three international agencies created in the 1940s: the IMF, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (now part of the World Bank) and GATT, the precursor to the World Trade Organization.
Over the next 25 or so years, the
Finally, on
Even though Bretton Woods didn’t last, it left an important legacy that still has a significant effect on today’s international economic climate. This legacy exists in the form of the three international agencies created in the 1940s: the IMF, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (now part of the World Bank) and GATT, the precursor to the World Trade Organization.
Current Exchange Rates
After the Bretton Woods system broke down, the world finally accepted the use of floating foreign exchange rates during the
- Dollarization;
- Pegged rate; and
- Managed floating rate.
Dollarization
This event occurs when a country decides not to issue its own currency and adopts a foreign currency as its national currency. Although dollarization usually enables a country to be seen as a more stable place for investment, the drawback is that the country’s central bank can no longer print money or make any sort of monetary policy. An example of dollarization isEl Salvador
This event occurs when a country decides not to issue its own currency and adopts a foreign currency as its national currency. Although dollarization usually enables a country to be seen as a more stable place for investment, the drawback is that the country’s central bank can no longer print money or make any sort of monetary policy. An example of dollarization is
Pegged Rates
Pegging occurs when one country directly fixes its exchange rate to a foreign currency so that the country will have somewhat more stability than a normal float. More specifically, pegging allows a country’s currency to be exchanged at a fixed rate with a single or a specific basket of foreign currencies. The currency will only fluctuate when the pegged currencies change.
For example,
Managed Floating Rates
This type of system is created when a currency’s exchange rate is allowed to freely change in value subject to the market forces of supply and demand. However, the government or central bank may intervene to stabilize extreme fluctuations in exchange rates. For example, if a country’s currency is depreciating far beyond an acceptable level, the government can raise short-term interest rates. Raising rates should cause the currency to appreciate slightly; but understand that this is a very simplified example. Central banks typically employ a number of tools to manage currency.
Market Participants
Unlike the equity market - where investors often only trade with institutional investors (such as mutual funds) or other individual investors - there are additional participants that trade on the forex market for entirely different reasons than those on the equity market. Therefore, it is important to identify and understand the functions and motivations of the main players of the forex market.
Governments and Central Banks
Arguably, some of the most influential participants involved with currency exchange are the central banks and federal governments. In most countries, the central bank is an extension of the government and conducts its policy in tandem with the government. However, some governments feel that a more independent central bank would be more effective in balancing the goals of curbing inflation and keeping interest rates low, which tends to increase economic growth. Regardless of the degree of independence that a central bank possesses, government representatives typically have regular consultations with central bank representatives to discuss monetary policy. Thus, central banks and governments are usually on the same page when it comes to monetary policy.
Central banks are often involved in manipulating reserve volumes in order to meet certain economic goals. For example, ever since pegging its currency (the yuan) to the U.S. dollar,
Banks and Other Financial Institutions
In addition to central banks and governments, some of the largest participants involved with forex transactions are banks. Most individuals who need foreign currency for small-scale transactions deal with neighborhood banks. However, individual transactions pale in comparison to the volumes that are traded in the interbank market.
The interbank market is the market through which large banks transact with each other and determine the currency price that individual traders see on their trading platforms. These banks transact with each other on electronic brokering systems that are based upon credit. Only banks that have credit relationships with each other can engage in transactions. The larger the bank, the more credit relationships it has and the better the pricing it can access for its customers. The smaller the bank, the less credit relationships it has and the lower the priority it has on the pricing scale.
Banks, in general, act as dealers in the sense that they are willing to buy/sell a currency at the bid/ask price. One way that banks make money on the forex market is by exchanging currency at a premium to the price they paid to obtain it. Since the forex market is a decentralized market, it is common to see different banks with slightly different exchange rates for the same currency.
Hedgers
Some of the biggest clients of these banks are businesses that deal with international transactions. Whether a business is selling to an international client or buying from an international supplier, it will need to deal with the volatility of fluctuating currencies.
If there is one thing that management (and shareholders) detest, it is uncertainty. Having to deal with foreign-exchange risk is a big problem for many multinationals. For example, suppose that a German company orders some equipment from a Japanese manufacturer to be paid in yen one year from now. Since the exchange rate can fluctuate wildly over an entire year, the German company has no way of knowing whether it will end up paying more euros at the time of delivery.
One choice that a business can make to reduce the uncertainty of foreign-exchange risk is to go into the spot market and make an immediate transaction for the foreign currency that they need.
Unfortunately, businesses may not have enough cash on hand to make spot transactions or may not want to hold massive amounts of foreign currency for long periods of time. Therefore, businesses quite frequently employ hedging strategies in order to lock in a specific exchange rate for the future or to remove all sources of exchange-rate risk for that transaction.
For example, if a European company wants to import steel from the
Speculators
Another class of market participants involved with foreign exchange-related transactions is speculators. Rather than hedging against movement in exchange rates or exchanging currency to fund international transactions, speculators attempt to make money by taking advantage of fluctuating exchange-rate levels.
The most famous of all currency speculators is probably George Soros. The billionaire hedge fund manager is most famous for speculating on the decline of the British pound, a move that earned $1.1 billion in less than a month. On the other hand, Nick Leeson, a derivatives trader with
Some of the largest and most controversial speculators on the forex market are hedge funds, which are essentially unregulated funds that employ unconventional investment strategies in order to reap large returns. Think of them as mutual funds on steroids. Hedge funds are the favorite whipping boys of many a central banker. Given that they can place such massive bets, they can have a major effect on a country’s currency and economy. Some critics blamed hedge funds for the Asian currency crisis of the late 1990s, but others have pointed out that the real problem was the ineptness of Asian central bankers.
Now that you have a basic understanding of the forex market, its participants and its history, we can move on to some of the more advanced concepts that will bring you closer to being able to trade within this massive market. The next section will look at the main economic theories that underlie the forex market.
5-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS & STRATEGIES
In the equities market, fundamental analysis looks to measure a company's true value and to base investments upon this type of calculation. To some extent, the same is done in the retail forex market, where forex fundamental traders evaluate currencies, and their countries, like companies and use economic announcements to gain an idea of the currency’s true value.
All of the news reports, economic data and political events that come out about a country are similar to news that comes out about a stock in that it is used by investors to gain an idea of value. This value changes over time due to many factors, including economic growth and financial strength. Fundamental traders look at all of this information to evaluate a country's currency.
Given that there are practically unlimited forex fundamentals trading strategies based on fundamental data, one could write a book on this subject. To give you a better idea of a tangible trading opportunity, let’s go over one of the most well-known situations.
A Breakdown of the Forex Carry Trade
Given that there are practically unlimited forex fundamentals trading strategies based on fundamental data, one could write a book on this subject. To give you a better idea of a tangible trading opportunity, let’s go over one of the most well-known situations.
A Breakdown of the Forex Carry Trade
The currency carry trade is a strategy in which a trader sells a currency that is offering lower interest rates and purchases a currency that offers a higher interest rate. In other words, you borrow at a low rate, and then lend at a higher rate. The trader using the strategy captures the difference between the two rates. When highly leveraging the trade, even a small difference between two rates can make the trade highly profitable. Along with capturing the rate difference, investors also will often see the value of the higher currency rise as money flows into the higher-yielding currency, which bids up its value.
Real-life examples of a yen carry trade can be found starting in 1999, when
For example, 10 times leverage would create a return of 30% on a 3% yield. If you have $1,000 in your account and have access to 10 times leverage, you will control $10,000. If you implement the currency carry trade from the example above, you will earn 3% per year. At the end of the year, your $10,000 investment would equal $10,300, or a $300 gain. Because you only invested $1,000 of your own money, your real return would be 30% ($300/$1,000). However this strategy only works if the currency pair’s value remains unchanged or appreciates. Therefore, most forex carry traders look not only to earn the interest rate differential, but also capital appreciation. While we’ve greatly simplified this transaction, the key thing to remember here is that a small difference in interest rates can result in huge gains when leverage is applied. Most currency brokers require a minimum margin to earn interest for carry trades.
However, this transaction is complicated by changes to the exchange rate between the two countries. If the lower-yielding currency appreciates against the higher-yielding currency, the gain earned between the two yields could be eliminated. The major reason that this can happen is that the risks of the higher-yielding currency are too much for investors, so they choose to invest in the lower-yielding, safer currency. Because carry trades are longer term in nature, they are susceptible to a variety of changes over time, such as rising rates in the lower-yielding currency, which attracts more investors and can lead to currency appreciation, diminishing the returns of the carry trade. This makes the future direction of the currency pair just as important as the interest rate differential itself. (To read more about currency pairs,
To clarify this further, imagine that the interest rate in the
However, imagine that there was another crisis in
You should now have an idea of some of the basic economic and fundamental ideas that underlie the forex and impact the movement of currencies. The most important thing that should be taken away from this section is that currencies and countries, like companies, are constantly changing in value based on fundamental factors such as economic growth and interest rates. You should also, based on the economic theories mentioned above, have an idea how certain economic factors impact a country's currency. We will now move on to technical analysis, the other school of analysis that can be used to pick trades in the forex market.
6-TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND INDICATORS
One of the underlying tenets of technical analysis is that historical price action predicts future price action. Since the forex is a 24-hour market, there tends to be a large amount of data that can be used to gauge future price activity, thereby increasing the statistical significance of the forecast. This makes it the perfect market for traders that use technical tools, such as trends, charts and indicators.
It is important to note that, in general, the interpretation of technical analysis remains the same regardless of the asset being monitored. There are literally hundreds of books dedicated to this field of study, but in this tutorial we will only touch on the basics of why technical analysis is such a popular tool in the forex market.
As the specific techniques of technical analysis are discussed in other tutorials, we will focus on the more forex-specific aspects of technical analysis.
Technical Analysis Discounts Everything; Especially in Forex
As the specific techniques of technical analysis are discussed in other tutorials, we will focus on the more forex-specific aspects of technical analysis.
Technical Analysis Discounts Everything; Especially in Forex
Minimal Rate Inconsistency
There are many large players in the forex market, such as hedge funds and large banks, that all have advanced computer systems to constantly monitor any inconsistencies between the different currency pairs. Given these programs, it is rare to see any major inconsistency last longer than a matter of seconds. Many traders turn to forex technical analysis because it presumes that all the factors that influence a price - economic, political, social and psychological - have already been factored into the current exchange rate by the market. With so many investors and so much money exchanging hands each day, the trend and flow of capital is what becomes important, rather than attempting to identify a mispriced rate.
Trend or Range
One of the greatest goals of technical traders in the FX market is to determine whether a given pair will trend in a certain direction, or if it will travel sideways and remain range-bound. The most common method to determine these characteristics is to draw trend lines that connect historical levels that have prevented a rate from heading higher or lower. These levels of support and resistance are used by technical traders to determine whether or not the given trend, or lack of trend, will continue.
Generally, the major currency pairs - such as the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and GBP/USD - have shown the greatest characteristics of trend, while the currency pairs that have historically shown a higher probability of becoming range-bound have been the currency crosses (pairs not involving the U.S. dollar). The two charts below show the strong trending nature of USD/JPY in contrast to the range-bound nature of EUR/CHF. It is important for every trader to be aware of the characteristics of trend and range, because they will not only affect what pairs are traded, but also what type of strategy should be used
Common Indicators
Technical traders use many different indicators in combination with support and resistance to aid them in predicting the future direction of exchange rates. Again, learning how to interpret various forex technical indicators is a study unto itself and goes beyond the scope of this forex tutorial. If you wish to learn more about this subject, we suggest you read our technical analysis tutorial.
A few indicators that we feel we should mention, due to their popularity, are: Bollinger bands, Fibonacci retracement, moving averages, moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and stochastics. These technical tools are rarely used by themselves to generate signals, but rather in conjunction with other indicators and chart patterns.
7-HOW TO OPEN A FOREX ACCOUNT AND MAKE TRADE
So, you think you are ready to trade? Make sure you read this section to learn how you can go about setting up a forex account so that you can start trading currencies. We'll also mention other factors that you should be aware of beforeyou take this step. We will then discuss how to trade forex and the different types of orders that can be placed.
Opening A Forex Brokerage Account
Trading forex is similar to the equity market because individuals interested in trading need to open up a trading account. Like the equity market, each forex account and the services it provides differ, so it is important that you find the right one. Below we will talk about some of the factors that should be considered when selecting a forex account.
Leverage
Leverage is basically the ability to control large amounts of capital, using very little of your own capital; the higher the leverage, the higher the level of risk. The amount of leverage on an account differs depending on the account itself, but most use a factor of at least 50:1, with some being as high as 250:1. A leverage factor of 50:1 means that for every dollar you have in your account you control up to $50. For example, if a trader has $1,000 in his or her account, the broker will lend that person $50,000 to trade in the market. This leverage also makes your margin, or the amount you have to have in the account to trade a certain amount, very low. In equities, margin is usually at least 50%, while the leverage of 50:1 is equivalent to 2%.
Leverage is seen as a major benefit of forex trading, as it allows you to make large gains with a small investment. However, leverage can also be an extreme negative if a trade moves against you because your losses also are amplified by the leverage. With this kind of leverage, there is the real possibility that you can lose more than you invested - although most firms have protective stops preventing an account from going negative. For this reason, it is vital that you remember this when opening an account and that when you determine your desired leverage you understand the risks involved.
Commissions and Fees
Another major benefit of forex accounts is that trading within them is done on a commission-free basis. This is unlike equity accounts, in which you pay the broker a fee for each trade. The reason for this is that you are dealing directly with market makers and do not have to go through other parties like brokers.
This may sound too good to be true, but rest assured that market makers are still making money each time you trade. Remember the bid and ask from the previous section? Each time a trade is made, it is the market makers that capture the spread between these two. Therefore, if the bid/ask for a foreign currency is 1.5200/50, the market maker captures the difference (50 basis points).
If you are planning on opening a forex account, it is important to know that each firm has different spreads on foreign currency pairs traded through them. While they will often differ by only a few pips (0.0001), this can be meaningful if you trade a lot over time. So when opening an account make sure to find out the pip spread that it has on foreign currency pairs you are looking to trade.
Other Factors
There are a lot of differences between each forex firm and the accounts they offer, so it is important to review each before making a commitment. Each company will offer different levels of services and programs along with fees above and beyond actual trading costs. Also, due to the less regulated nature of the forex market, it is important to go with a reputable company..)
How to Trade Forex
Now that you know some important factors to be aware of when opening a forex account, we will take a look at what exactly you can trade within that account. The two main ways to trade in the foreign currency market is the simple buying and selling of currency pairs, where you go long one currency and short another. The second way is through the purchasing of derivatives that track the movements of a specific currency pair. Both of these techniques are highly similar to techniques in the equities market.The most common way is to simply buy and sell currency pairs, much in the same way most individuals buy and sell stocks. In this case, you are hoping the value of the pair itself changes in a favorable manner. If you go long a currency pair, you are hoping that the value of the pair increases. For example, let's say that you took a long position in the USD/CAD pair - you will make money if the value of this pair goes up, and lose money if it falls. This pair rises when the U.S. dollar increases in value against the Canadian dollar, so it is a bet on the U.S. dollar.
The other option is to use derivative products, such as options and futures, to profit from changes in the value of currencies. If you buy an option on a currency pair, you are gaining the right to purchase a currency pair at a set rate before a set point in time. A futures contract, on the other hand, creates the obligation to buy the currency at a set point in time. Both of these trading techniques are usually only used by more advanced traders, but it is important to at least be familiar with them.
Types of Orders
A trader looking to open a new position will likely use either a market order or a limit order. The incorporation of these order types remains the same as when they are used in the equity markets. A market order gives a forex trader the ability to obtain the currency at whatever exchange rate it is currently trading at in the market, while a limit order allows the trader to specify a certain entry price. (For a brief refresher of these orders, see The Basics of Order Entry.)
Forex traders who already hold an open position may want to consider using a take-profit order to lock in a profit. Say, for example, that a trader is confident that the GBP/USD rate will reach 1.7800, but is not as sure that the rate could climb any higher. A trader could use a take-profit order, which would automatically close his or her position when the rate reaches 1.7800, locking in their profits.
Another tool that can be used when traders hold open positions is the stop-loss order. This order allows traders to determine how much the rate can decline before the position is closed and further losses are accumulated. Therefore, if the GBP/USD rate begins to drop, an investor can place a stop-loss that will close the position (for example at 1.7787), in order to prevent any further losses.
As you can see, the type of orders that you can enter in your forex trading account are similar to those found in equity accounts. Having a good understanding of these orders is critical before placing your first trade.